Merci Beaucoup

Thank you, dear friends. I have learned much this year.

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World Wildlife Fund Infiltrates UK Government

In 2006 an environmental lobby group CEO simultaneously became chairman of a UK government body. The Ministry of Defence saw no conflict between serving the public and advancing an activist cause.

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Best of 2010 at NoFrakkingConsensus

A list of the five blog posts I’m proudest to have written in 2010.

See them here.

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Future Babble

Possessing scholarly expertise is one thing. Being able to predict the future is another matter entirely. Future Babble is a book that explores the question of why expert predictions fail – and why we believe them anyway.

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Have a Little Faith

Humans are ingenious and creative and resourceful. Whatever challenges the future may hold, we shall overcome. Read more of my Christmas Day blog post here.

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Season's Greetings - Via Maggie's Blog

The most popular climate blog in Sweden has posted an amusing, politically-correct holiday greeting.

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Blood Supply Threatened By Green Extremism

For every green idea that truly makes sense, there’s half a dozen dumb ones. When bureaucrats promote these dumb ideas communities lose their bloodmobiles.

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232 Opinions Concerning the IPCC

An important collection of documents has entered the public domain. These are the comments 232 individuals submitted to the committee that investigated the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) earlier this year.

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Baby, It's Cold Outside

It isn’t your imagination. We were advised that global warming would mean milder winters. The record-breaking cold temperatures & unusual snowfalls in recent years suggest something is wrong with the IPCC’s climate models.

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The Climate's Gonna Kill Us (Circa 1974)

Back in 1974 news reports were the mirror opposite of today. Ocean temperatures were dropping, polar ice was growing, and the coldest temperatures in 200 years were being recorded at the Arctic Circle.

The media told us we should be worried, very worried.

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The IPCC's 12 Days of Christmas

On the second day of Christmas, my true love gave to me 2 flying pigs and a climate bible with integrity.

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Missing Documents, Unfulfilled Promises

The InterAcademy Council has been promising since August to release documents associated with an investigation of the IPCC’s policies and procedures. There’s still no sign of them.

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Forty Years of Drama Queen Scientists

No matter what the concern, drama queen scientists have been pushing the same solution for decades: fewer babies, less consumption, less travel & less freedom. For them, the glass is always half-empty – and every problem is a crisis that requires urgent, radical change.

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If the Science Is So Persuasive, Why the Theatrics?

If climate change science is so convincing, why did Timothy Wirth schedule James Hansen’s historic 1988 testimony during the hottest time of the year? And why did he sneak into the hearing room the night before & open the windows so the air conditioning would be ineffective?

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The UN's Grim Fantasy: One-Child Laws

Ted Turner has himself fathered five children. But he thinks China’s coercive one-child policies should be exported to other countries. Why aren’t other UN officials scrambling to distance themselves from his remarks?

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A Powerful New Research Tool

A hyperlinked and annotated version of the 2007 climate bible gives us new ways of viewing this document. Produced by two dedicated volunteers, it’s a gift to the public as well as the research community.

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Why People Think Public Transit Sucks

Environmentalists scold us for not making more extensive use of public transit. But transit systems are run by bureaucrats – whose priorities aren’t necessarily aligned with the people they serve.

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New York Times Reporter Spanks the UN

Andrew Revkin has identified a mistake in a UN climate negotiations document. This same “small error” has also appeared in the headlines of two UN press releases.

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Speaking of Holiday Cheer...

This being a season of good cheer, perhaps some of you might consider buying me a cocktail, so to speak. I've set up a donation page for this purpose that will retire on January 3rd, 2011.

My book, an expose of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is halfway complete. Researching and writing it has consumed the bulk of my time for more than a year. Up until now, this effort has been funded solely by my household.

If you think the work I'm doing is important, please consider buying me a holiday drink.

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Go directly to the (PayPal-powered) Donation Page

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Why I'm Giving 'The Hockey Stick Illusion" for Christmas

It’s difficult to read Andrew Montford’s Hockey Stick Illusion book and not conclude that something is terribly amiss – in the world of science, in scientific publishing, and within the bowels of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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World War II Rationing - the 'Hated Sacrifice'

Some people argue that energy rationing of the sort imposed during wartime is necessary to save the planet. But World War II rationing made life miserable for ordinary people. It also nourished the black market & organized crime.

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Kevin Anderson: The Ration Card Man

Kevin Anderson says additional nuclear power plants are unnecessary because climate change can be easily dealt with. Instead, he wants to establish a costly, intrusive, liberty-restricting bureaucracy to ration your access to energy.

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The Royal Society's Big Oil Award

The UK’s Royal Society awarded an Esso Energy medal annually for 25 years. A short time later, when opinions on climate change diverged, the society began painting Esso’s parent company, ExxonMobil, as demon spawn.

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Why Good Judgment Matters

Data is collected, recorded, adjusted & interpreted not by disinterested robots but by people. Because highly-educated individuals can look at the same data and come to different conclusions, the degree to which a person’s judgment can be trusted becomes a central concern.

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Appalling Rhetoric from a Climate Skeptic

The climate change debate is important. Human lives (and trillions of dollars) hang in the balance. We therefore need open, vigorous dialogue. We need to hear all perspectives. But this can’t happen when both sides are trying to shut down the debate by declaring other people’s views criminal.

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Greenpeace's 12th Century Technology

Greenpeace recently dismissed the Canadian Senate as a 19th century institution. But it aggressively promotes wind power – a 12th century technology.

While it accuses the Senate of being undemocratic, Greenpeace itself scored only 42% when evaluated from a public accountability perspective.

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The Non-Stop Disaster Narrative

One environmental scare story always seems to follow another. Even though the predicted disasters never materialize, we still believe the latest one.

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UN Style Empirical Research

First, UN researchers conduct a climate change survey. Second, they release a report that fails to provide even an overview of the results, never mind detailed evidence of the assertions being made. Next the report gets cited as though it were gospel by Canada’s Library of Parliament.

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Should UN Employees Be IPCC Lead Authors?

Koko Warner is a UN employee whose research has been funded and brazenly promoted by the UN in order to advance the UN’s climate change agenda. Now she is an IPCC lead author.

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Suzuki's Children (The Political Kind)

Dan Kellar is a geography student at the University of Waterloo. He is writing a doctoral thesis under the supervision of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change author and already teaches climate change courses to impressionable undergraduates.

Last week Kellar prevented a journalist from speaking to a campus audience about her new book. He says that because (he thinks) she’s lying free speech doesn’t apply to her.

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Monkeys Could Do This

Al Gore said global warming caused Hurricane Katrina and that hurricanes were going to get worse. This gave insurance companies an excuse to jack premiums by tens of billions. How embarrassing that US hurricane damage has since fallen to less than half the historical average.

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Splattergate - Six Weeks Later

An essay by an Australian blogger attempts to answer the burning question: what were the environmentalists thinking? How can dramatizing the execution of children be smart? What sort of bubble does one need to inhabit to imagine that the 10:10 "No Pressure" video was remotely appropriate?

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Lest We Forget the Importance of Liberty

To a large degree the climate change story is a media story. Journalists are supposed to be guard dogs, not lap dogs. Instead, they’ve become arbiters of scientific truth – refusing to report on non-conformist perspectives.

Last of a five-part series.

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Margaret Atwood Should Resign From PEN International

As Vice President of PEN International, Margaret Atwood has pledged to oppose “any form of suppression of freedom of expression.”

But she sits on a board directors with a man who says some people have no right to free speech. She has written the foreword to a book by David Suzuki – who thinks politicians should be jailed for their climate change decisions. She has also encouraged her Twitter followers to visit a web page that says a TV station that hasn’t even begun broadcasting yet should be stopped.

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Slaying the Unicorn (Part 1)

The campaign against ‘Fox News North’ threatens the intellectual freedom of all Canadians.

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When is a Job Offer Not a Job Offer? (Part 2)

What kind of company invites you to be part of a bold new television station and then a few months later shrugs and mumbles that it was all a practical joke?

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When Is A Job Not A Job Offer? (Part 1)

Invited in May to join a new Canadian television station, I was supposed to be a contrarian voice on topics such as global warming and David Suzuki. By October, the broadcaster had lost its nerve.

This multi-part essay relates how Canadian cultural icon Margaret Atwood teamed up with an American, left-wing activist group to interfere with Canadian consumers’ television choices.

I’m a bit player in this drama (albeit one wooed & then jilted by a media company lacking even a scrap of honour). The bigger picture is that Canadians will continue to be fed the same old pablum.

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Still Clueless in Australia

Journalist Margot O’Neill has just completed an Oxford University sabbatical on climate change reporting, but her views aren’t much altered from a year ago – when she accused IPCC critics of embracing conspiracies.

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Wind and Solar in Fantasy Land

A + B = C

A: Certain companies produce wind and solar power.
B: The rest of us pay inflated prices for this power.
C: Politicians point to the above as proof that they’re green.

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Wind Power's Double Standard

Wind power companies would never be allowed to set up shop in the first place – and could not remain in business – if they were penalized in the same manner as oil companies for the bird deaths they cause.

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Halloween's Eco Police

Even silly, whimsical childhood rituals can’t escape the censorious notice of the eco police. Have you purchased your organic pumpkins and snacks “that aren’t so bad for the planet” yet?

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Message to Young Journalists: Connect the Dots

Invited to speak to journalism students, I try to communicate a few basic ideas. First, large increases in heating bills are the result of green energy policies. Second, these policies are the result of our belief that carbon dioxide emissions are harmful. Third, that belief is the result of reports written by the IPCC. Fourth, much of what we’ve been told about the IPCC and how it works is not true.

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Speech Crimes & Ethics 101

An ethics professor thinks corporations that challenge climate dogma should be charged with a new kind of crime against humanity.

Strangely, he’s unconcerned by the fact that a representative of the violent & unsavoury Sudanese government fills one of the IPCC’s four most senior positions.

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Glimpses of Delingpole

UK blogger James Delingpole did me a service this past weekend. He said good things about my recent work on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s dubious species extinction claim. Many of his readers have, therefore, been dropping by.

This got me thinking about the photo shoot that took place at the end of the climate skeptics’ conference Delingpole and I both attended in Chicago in May.

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The Media Messes Up

Journalists said Toronto’s mayoral race was too close to call. In fact, a winner was declared eight minutes after the polls closed. So go ahead, take their word for it when they tell you about global warming.

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Local Government Is Not About Being Green

Local government is supposed to be about water, sewer, garbage collection, police and ambulance services. So why are so many election candidates obsessed with the environment? Canadian taxpayers already fund environment ministries at two other levels of government.

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An Even Younger Senior Author

If climate change is the biggest challenge facing humanity, why have kids filled senior IPCC roles for the past 15 years?

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Meet the IPCC's Youngest Lead Author

At the age of 25, Richard Klein became an IPCC lead author. He held a Masters degree, and had spent a year working for Greenpeace.

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More Grad Student Expertise

15 years prior to receiving her PhD, Sari Kovats began serving as an IPCC contributing author – followed by two stints as a lead author.

This means governments have been relying on the expertise of graduate students when they make multi-billion-dollar climate change decisions.

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Lead Author Lacked a Masters Degree

When Laurens Bouwer served as a lead author for the 2001 climate bible he had not yet earned his Masters.

The IPCC surely needs to explain how research assistants and those-working-on-their-masters qualify as the worlds best experts and top scientists.

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The Non-Stop IPCC Spin Machine

A new IPCC press release says “thousands of scientists” contribute to the climate bible. But a list of authors selected to take part in the upcoming edition contains only 831 names.

Among these is Lisa Alexander. She began writing IPCC reports a decade before she’d even earned her PhD.

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Rub Asbestos on Your Face, Why Don't Cha

The man in charge of one of the world’s most influential organizations thinks his critics should rub asbestos on their faces. Those who disagree with him, he says, are arrogant, have suspect motives, and practice “voodoo science.”

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The IPCC's Confused Chairman

Delegates to a four-day Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change meeting chose not to replace chairman Rajendra Pachauri with someone more credible and professional. Journalists beware: nothing this man says should be taken at face value.

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David Suzuki's Five Kids

People are surprised to learn that eco icon David Suzuki (who insists there are too many humans on the planet), has himself fathered five children. But his autobiography reveals this to be the case. It also tells us he began dating his second wife when she was 22 – and he was 35.

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Transformational Canadians

Please nominate Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick as “Transformational Canadians.” Help a Canadian newspaper understand the enormous contribution these gentlemen have made to the climate debate. Nominations close November 26th.

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Extinction Fiction

My previous two posts on the IPCC’s dubious species extinction claim have now been combined into a single 9-page PDF essay. Happy (Canadian) Thanksgiving!

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Another IPCC Train Wreck: Species Extinction (Part 2)

When five out of ten lead authors of an IPCC chapter have documented links to the World Wildlife Fund their findings lack credibility.

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Greenpeace and the Violent Video

A Greenpeace spokesperson suggests that the only people concerned about the video in which kids are executed for insufficient eco enthusiasm are those with ulterior motives – “climate skeptics and think tanks funded by corporations.”

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Another IPCC Train Wreck: Species Extinction (Part 1)

The IPCC’s chairman tells us constantly that 20-30% of the planet’s species are at risk of extinction due to global warming. But experts in that field say the research on which the IPCC bases its conclusions is rubbish.

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If We Are Not Free to Disagree, We Are Not Free

The video in which people are summarily executed for questioning the need for emissions reduction is being denounced by prominent global warming activists. Organizations that have aligned themselves with the 10:10 Campaign – such as Sony, Oxford University, and UK local governments – also need to distance themselves from it.

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Blood & Gore Against Global Warming

A UK green group has produced an advertisement in which people (including school children) who exhibit insufficient enthusiasm toward reducing their carbon footprint are blown to pieces. Yep, they are cavalierly murdered while those in the vicinity get splattered with blood and gore.

Read the full post - and see the 4-minute video - here.

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David Suzuki's Odd View of Women

David Suzuki thinks women are capable of saving the world. I agree. But before we support him financially and in other ways, shouldn’t we spend a few minutes looking closely at the kind of world he wants us to fight for?

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The Politics of Fear

According to many commentators, conservatives are now ascendant because they have invoked the politics of fear. So where are the denunciations of the politics of fear employed by greens? They’ve played that hand for years – exploiting & targeting kids in the process.

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Can We Recycle Bono?

Climate change activist Bono now appears in Louis Vuitton magazine ads – a $1200 bag slung over his shoulder. How exactly does extreme conspicuous consumption fight global warming?

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Seven (Real) Questions for David Suzuki

David Suzuki has been asked a series of softball questions by a mainstream newspaper reporter. My own list of questions begins with this:

1. You think there are too many human beings, that our numbers over-burden planet Earth. Why, then, did you yourself father five children?

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Anti-Science Claim Is Devoid of Meaning

It’s common these days for global warming activists to describe people with whom they disagree as anti-science. This is the equivalent of a toddler calling everyone a poopy head.

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The Shoddy Climategate Inquiries

A new report examines three inquiries launched after the Climategate documents surfaced in late 2009. Intended to restore public confidence, those inquiries have done nothing of the sort.

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Politicians Dressed in Lab Coats

When a forensic pathologist testifies at a murder trial he describes bruises, lacerations & bullet holes. He does not decide whether the accused is guilty. Nor does he opine to the media about how such murders might be prevented.

So why do climate scientists think it’s their business to prescribe solutions – rather than telling us about their data and only about their data?

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The New Graduate Who Served as IPCC Lead Author

A recent medical graduate with no relevant publications was a lead author of the IPCC’s first health chapter. That report was supposed to have been written by the world’s top experts.

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Are Humans Parasites?

Hostage-taker James Lee’s views about the planet being better off without humans are chillingly similar to those expressed by The Ecologist magazine in its debut editorial.

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The Book the IPCC Plagiarized

Entire passages in the climate bible’s 1995 health chapter were lifted from a 1993 book authored by Anthony McMichael - the person the IPCC placed in charge of that chapter.

Read the full post here.

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Pachauri Defrocked

A report released this week blows smoking holes through just about everything the IPCC’s chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, has been telling us.

Read the full post here.

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Conflict-of-Interest at the IPCC

The review committee examining the IPCC process has recommended that “rigorous conflict of interest” policies be adopted. Hallelujah.

Read the full post here.

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Extreme Nonsense

Canada’s weekly news magazine currently has a cover story declaring that extreme weather is “only going to get worse.”

Remember the 2008 story in the same magazine that said $200 per barrel oil was imminent, that commuters would become petroleum refugees, and that the suburbs would shortly turn into ghost towns?

Read the full post here.

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IPCC Author Profile: Alistair Woodward

In June the IPCC put Alistair Woodward in charge of the climate bible’s health chapter. He thinks doctors should “educate and encourage” their patients “in climate change action.”

read the full blog post here

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I hope to become more active on Twitter, as well.

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See You in Mid-August

I'm currently on a writing retreat, working hard on my upcoming book, Decoding the Climate Bible: Almost Nothing You've Heard About the UN's Uber Report is True.

Until mid-August, therefore, this blog will be on hiatus. To those of you in the Northern hemisphere – enjoy your summer. To my friends in Australia, New Zealand, and other southerly locales, may winter treat you kindly.

Until we meet again, below are some of the submissions to the body currently examining the manner in which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conducts itself.

Keep in mind when you read these that the public has long been told that the IPCC's findings should be trusted because it is a paragon of virtue. We've been told its approach is rigorous, transparent, robust, and inclusive (see quote at bottom of p.7 of PDF). We've been told it employs a meticulous "peer-reviewed process." Indeed, according to its chairman, no one can imagine a better way of doing things since the IPCC's modus operandi is unparalleled on the planet.

Among those persons who beg to differ are:

• John Christy (scientist, USA) presentation (17-page PDF), interview here
• Marcel Crok (journalist, The Netherlands) submission
• David Henderson (economist, UK) submission, intro here
• Ross McKitrick (economist, Canada) presentation
• Roger Pielke Sr. (scientist, USA) submission
• Richard Tol (economist, Ireland) blog post about issues, submission here
• Hans von Storch (scientist, Germany) 17-page PowerPoint presentation

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See my IPCC-related blog posts in the right-hand column here.

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>> The water cannon of the climate debate
>> Climate bible gets 21 'F's on report card
>> Cross-examining the IPCC
>> The great peer-review fairy tale
>> What's left if we disregard non-peer-reviewed claims?
>> Cutoff dates, what cutoff dates?

1969 Climate Predictions Miss by a Mile

Czech physicist Lubos Motl reports on an important memo just released by the Richard Nixon library. Written by presidential advisor Daniel Moynihan in 1969 it reveals that the "carbon dioxide problem" was viewed as an environmental concern by some highly placed US government officials way back when.

This memo reads, in part:

It is now pretty clearly agreed that the CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperture near the earth's surface by 7 degrees Fahreheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter. [bold added]

Motl has drawn up a handy chart that demonstrates just how wide of the mark these predictions were. Rather than increasing by 81 parts per million as the "pretty clearly agreed" experts feared, CO2 rose by only 45 parts per million.

Rather than spiking by 3.9 C (7 degrees F), the actual temperature increase between 1969 and the year 2000 was a practically imperceptible 0.3 C. Which means the experts were off by 1200 percent.

Most embarrassing of all, rather than rising 305 cm (10 feet), sea level increased by a paltry 10 cm (3.9 inches). Which means the experts overestimated that particular danger by 2950 percent.

Moral of the story: no one has ever been able to predict the future. Not even highly educated, highly regarded government advisors.

We humans can tell ourselves no end of scary stories. We can exhaust our financial, institutional, and emotional resources preparing for imaginary dangers based on hypothetical scenarios. Or, as Bob Carter argues persuasively in his important, accessible-to-the-lay-person book Climate: The Counter Consenus, we can take sensible steps to protect ourselves from hazards we're dead certain to encounter. These are the ones that have always been with us: droughts, landslides, floods, wildfires, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes, and so forth.

With so many very real challenges to cope with, why do we humans spend so much energy obsessing about hypothetical ones?

• Motl's blog post is here
• the actual memo is here
• read a news article about the released Nixon papers here

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>> 10-year snow prediction fails miserably
>> A bogus 21-year-old climate prediction
>> Global disaster is so 1976
>> The big picture: the Y2K lesson

IPCC Says Climate Prediction Impossible

On page 85 of their excellent book, Taken By Storm: the Troubled Science, Policy, and Politics of Global Warming, Christopher Essex and Ross McKitrick call our attention to an astonishing line in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2001 Assessment Report:

The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. [bold added]

This statement appeared in the Executive Summary of Chapter 14 of the report produced by Working Group 1. (See the first bullet point on the right, page 3 of this 18-page PDF - or the third bullet point from the bottom here. The quote appearing in the book differs slightly from the IPCC version now online and reproduced above.)

The remainder of the page includes a great deal of gobblygook about the need to "project future climate changes" and the need to understand how probable some future scenarios may be when compared to others.

But there's no doubt about it. The IPCC admitted, a decade ago, that future long-term climate cannot be predicted. The system is chaotic. It is non-linear. It does not, and will not, behave the way we mere mortals expect it to.

So tell me again why we're scaring little kids witless by telling them there won't be a habitable world left by the time they grow up?

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>> The big picture: the Y2K lesson
>> Ten-year snow prediction fails miserably
>> Global disaster is so 1976
>> We're always out-of-touch with the future

The Legal Disclaimers Behind the Climate Science

In December 2009 Swiss Re, one of the world's largest insurance companies, published a 32-page paper (PDF here) which attempts to rebut climate skeptic arguments. This is a perfectly legitimate exercise and the tone of the paper (which describes itself as a "fact sheet") is professional.

Whether such rebuttals are persuasive is another matter. On page 27, for example, the paper tries to explain away global cooling between 1940 and 1970 (a period during which CO2 emissions were increasing) by declaring that "aerosol emissions…counterbalanced the increasing greenhouse effect."

In truth, this explanation is highly controversial. It is a hypothesis, not a proven fact. Nevertheless, Swiss Re dismisses 30 years of inconvenient cooling by citing a single scientific document - the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In other words: The IPCC says it, so it must true. Next topic.

What's most interesting to me, though, is the very fine print at the very bottom of the very last page of that Swiss Re paper. We readers are supposed to have been persuaded by the time we get there that climate change is a serious concern, that it is humanity's fault, and that the entire world needs to take dramatic steps in response.

But this paper's fine print reveals that Swiss Re is not prepared to stand behind any of these claims. In fact, it accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the paper's statements – and won't for one moment risk being held accountable for the information it is distributing. Thus reads the fine print:

The material and conclusions contained in this publication are for information purposes only and the authors offer no guarantee for the accuracy and completeness of its contents. All liability for the accuracy and completeness or for any damages resulting from the use of information herein is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Re Group or any of its entities be liable for any financial or consequential loss relating to this publication. [bold added]

Isn't that fascinating? This company isn't prepared to even defend a lawsuit based on the foregoing information, but it thinks the rest of us should consent to a redesign of the entire fossil-fuel-based-economy.

Nor is that the only disclaimer out there. As Tom Fuller has pointed out, the US Environmental Protection Agency's decision to regulate greenhouse gases rests firmly on reports written by the IPCC. Onerous, expensive regulation is necessary, argues the EPA, because the IPCC has spoken.

So isn't it delicious that, on the EPA's own website, when one is about to click on a hyperlink that leads to the IPCC's website, an "exit disclaimer" appears (see three on this page) and more fine print ensues:

This little graphic means that you will be leaving the EPA.gov domain and entering an external link. The link provides additional information that may be useful or interesting and is being provided consistent with the intended purpose of the EPA Web site. However, EPA cannot attest to the accuracy of information provided by this link…

When it suits their purpose, the EPA portrays the IPCC as the authoritative last word on climate change. On other occasions, the EPA's legal department carefully advises us that the IPCC's accuracy can't be guaranteed.

Hey, what's a few mixed messages between friends?

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>> We trusted too completely
>> More IPCC mischief
>> The big picture: the Y2k lesson
>> Ten-year snow prediction fails miserably